In my day job I’m primarily a facilitator. And I don’t mean facilitator in the sense of “I know a guy who can take care of that for you” facilitator, but rather someone who leads a group of people in any setting to achieve something. Whether that something is a document or process, or a better understanding, or a decision. It’s really about bringing a diverse group of people together to work through obstacles and achieve some semblance of progress.
So, whenever I conduct a meeting or workshop I know it was a good day when someone says “Hey, you did a good job herding cats today.”[1] But that doesn’t mean the meeting was successful, because success is not just keeping arguments from happening or staying on time. Success is achieving the desired outcome.
That result is difficult in and of itself, but is made almost impossible by the bias in our own thinking or especially when we work collaboratively with others. Bias can cloud what our desired outcome is. We become influenced into a decision by a more vocal person, or we believe that past accomplishments foretell future successes.
Bias affects most everything we do.
I was reminded of this the other week when I (unfortunately) happened to catch a few minutes of the CBS sitcom Two Broke Girls. Not to pass judgment on it, but it’s quite possibly the worst sitcom ever made. I know it’s popular and my apologies to those of you who enjoy it, but I can’t. I long for the great sitcoms of yesteryear like The Facts of Life.
But in a weird moment of self-realization I saw that my sentiment was a form of bias that I have since called the Grumpy Old Man Bias. I was partial to past experiences over current ones that didn’t have a sentimental tie, regardless of the inherent value or quality of either.
If I could let bias affect what I watch, what other decisions am I being subtly influenced by? I realized there were several outcome-clouding biases that really affect the successes we strive for. Having an understanding of them can only help us navigate our personal and professional lives. And since this all started with a TV show, what better way to describe them than to relate them to the classic sitcoms I grew up with.
Three’s Company Bias (Ambiguity Effect Bias): The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem “unknown”.
Do you remember that crazy Three’s Company episode where there was that big misunderstanding and Chrissy and Janet jumped to an incorrect conclusion about Jack, or Larry, or Mr. Roper, or vice versa, and then funniness ensued? Right, that was just about every single episode. Apparently without a small piece of information, the logical conclusion about a situation is improbable, and instead it makes more sense to think Jack and Mrs. Roper are having an affair. We often are no more logical when we discount decisions or choices because we don’t have all of the information. Instead of conducting more research we choose options that may not get us to our desired outcome.
Diff’rent Strokes or Perfect Strangers Bias (Selection Bias): The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis such that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed.
Much like Arnold, Willis, Mr. Drummond, and Mrs. Garrett all learned from each other’s varying experiences, so too did Balki Bartakomous and his cousin Larry Appleton. These two shows actually showed the benefit of diverse voices and experiences, despite the “hilarious” difficulties. Surrounding ourselves with similar thinking people may feel good, but don’t be ridiculous. It actually inhibits our ability to make meaningful decisions. That’s what I’m talkin’ ‘bout.
Who’s the Boss Bias (Illusion of Control Bias): The tendency to overestimate one’s degree of influence over external events.
Although Tony and Angela danced around the question for many seasons, neither was really ‘the boss’. They were influenced by their complex relationship, by their kids, and their work responsibilities and expectations. On a weekly basis, their lives (or the writers) presented them with situations they had little control over. We tend to think we are in complete control despite the numerous random factors that affect us on a daily basis. Recognition of what we don’t control is just as important as making the most of what we do control. By the way, Mona was clearly the boss.
Family Matters Bias (Availability Cascade Bias): A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse.
Steve Urkel was only supposed to make an appearance on Family Matters for one episode, however he ended up being the lynch pin to the entire series. His mousy antics forced the Winslow family to deal with him on a regular basis, despite having 3 other kids of their own. This demonstration of the 80/20 rule (80 percent of the time is spent on 20 percent of the people) is directly applicable to our lives. We associate importance of things or ideas just because of their repetitive appearance or discussion. Frequency may or may not infer importance, but blindly assigning value to the squeaky wheel person or idea can be dangerous.
Night Court Bias (Framing Effect Bias): Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how or by whom the information is presented.
Every night Judge Harry T. Stone passed judgment on petty criminals frequently based on the same information that was just framed differently by the sleazy Defense Attorney, Dan Fielding, and the flighty Prosecutor, Christine Sullivan. He had to look past their personal motivations and character flaws to asses each situation impartially. We are no different in our daily pursuits. We are often influenced by the messenger regardless of the soundness of the information or decision.
Alf Bias (Irrational Escalation Bias): The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting the decision was probably wrong.
What is it about the oft-used storyline of adopting and hiding the alien that lands in your garage that makes us think this is a good idea? Despite signs on a weekly basis that harboring an alien might be a bad idea, the Tanner family continued to invest in Alf’s well-being and safety, at great difficulty to themselves, especially Willie. We do this too when we continue down a business plan or a personal project that at face value is flawed only because of the investment of time and effort we have already committed. Just like Alf, if one of your endeavors is trying to eat your metaphorical cat, you may want to cut ties with it.
Wings Bias (Reactance Bias): The urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
The two proprietors of Sandpiper Air, Brian and Joe Hackett, could not be more different, and that difference is only exacerbated by Brian’s complete resistance to authority, structure, external influence, and, well, Joe. In fact those things make Brian run the opposite way, much to his eventual detriment. Not even the greatest character in sitcom history, Antonio Scarpacci, can help him. This is the opposite of the Bandwagon Effect but just as damaging. Being a contrarian for the sake of contrarianism takes the focus off of the desired outcome.
Seinfeld Bias (Confirmation Bias): The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on, and remember information in way that confirms one’s preconceptions.
That may actually be the entire plot summary. It wasn’t a show about nothing, rather a show about four individuals who lived in their own preconceptions all the way to series conclusion. Although they were extreme examples of misanthropes, Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer represented how we often search for information and meaning consistent with our past thinking, without being open to new ideas or unexpected results. This approach was obviously detrimental to their careers, friendships, and relationships, yet was pleasantly to our benefit and enjoyment.
Hopefully you can remember these biases in your lives so at no point do you ever mutter “Newman!” when things don’t go your way.
[1] I‘ve always thought there was a better way to describe bringing a chaotic group of people together and keeping them on track other than ‘herding cats’. Eels, maybe. What about herding sound or electrons? But Cats? Really? Put a bowl of milk down. Done. Herded.